WASHINGTON, D.C., May 27, 2023—National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center are predicting a near-normal hurricane season this year.

The administration’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 12-to-17 total named storms. 

Of those, five-to-nine could become hurricanes, including one-to-four major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher. 

NOAA has a 70 percent confidence in these ranges.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors—some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it—driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season. 

After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Niño to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.

El Nino’s potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin. 

Those conditions include the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea which creates more energy to fuel storm development.

“As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials. Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path.”

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast.

NOAA news release