HOLT, Fla., June 17, 2024—The first tropical system of the 2024 hurricane season is expected to develop by Wednesday.

A large low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche is moving toward the north-northwest with a turn toward the west-northwest tomorrow night or Wednesday. It is expected to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Currently, the system does not have a tropical storm structure; however, central pressure could deepen and develop enough convection to form a tighter wind core to become a tropical storm. According to the NHC, there’s also the possibility that the system may not become a tropical storm.

Regardless, tropical storm conditions—wind, heavy rain, coastal flooding—are possible beginning Wednesday over portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas Coast, therefore a tropical storm watch has been issued for the Texas coast from Port O’Connor south to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

Should a tropical storm develop, the first name on the 2024 hurricane list is Alberto.

A second area of clouds and thunderstorms is located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas.

Environmental conditions could be favorable for some development during the next few days as it moves west or west-northwest. The system is forecast to approach the southwest U.S. coast Thursday or Friday.

Chances for further formation are low at 30 percent.

National Hurricane Center forecast