HOLT, Fla.,  Nov. 4, 2024—The National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories for Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean Sea.

Rafael went from a tropical depression to a tropical storm in six hours today. This is the 17th named storm of the 2024 hurricane season.

The system is forecast to reach hurricane strength tomorrow evening when it passes over the Cayman Islands in the Caribbean.

Additional strengthening is forecast before Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth Wednesday.

Environmental conditions of low wind shear, high moisture and warm sea surface temperatures support Rafael strengthening during the next 48 hours, reaching category 1 strength, according to the NHC.

However, in a few days when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly wind shear, drier air and slightly cooler water temperatures are expected to weaken the hurricane back into a tropical storm by Saturday before it reaches the northern Gulf Coast.

Portions of the northwest Florida panhandle could experience tropical storm force winds as early as Thursday.

Heavy rainfall is expected to spread into Florida as Rafael makes its way northwest.

The NHC is also watching an area north of the northern Leeward Islands where a low pressure area could develop.

Some slow development of this system is possible later in the week as it moves westward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

NHC forecast