Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage

WASHINGTON, D.C.—Forecasters within the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).

Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

NOAA has a 70 percent confidence in these ranges.

Factors affecting the season

The season is expected to be above normal due to a convergence of factors, including warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and the potential for higher activity from the west African monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.

All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation.

The Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf, continues to have high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. Higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow storms to develop without disruption.

This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the west African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.

Improved hurricane analysis and forecasts

NOAA will improve its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season. These include:

NHC will again issue an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental U.S. New for this year, the graphic will highlight areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are simultaneously in effect.
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center will be able to issue tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which provides advance notice of potential tropical cyclone risks, has been extended from two weeks to three weeks, to provide additional time for preparation and response.
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2025 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to Sept. 10, the historical peak of the season.

NOAA news release