WASHINGTON, D.C., Aug. 11, 2025—Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to favor an above-normal season as NOAA first predicted in May as the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season enters its historical peak.

Forecasters from NOAA’s National Weather Service updated the number of expected named storms to 13-18 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 5-9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 2-5 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

The adjusted ranges are for the entire season from June 1 though November 30, and are inclusive of the five named tropical storms that have already formed. 

In the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes. 

The likelihood of above-normal activity is 50 percent, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 15 percent chance of a below-normal season. This updated prediction is similar to the initial outlook issued in May.

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Related: “NOAA predicts above-normal hurricane season“

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“As we enter the second half of the season, this updated hurricane outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now, in advance, rather than delay until a warning is issued,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm.

So far, the season has produced five named tropical storms and no hurricanes. 

Tropical Storm Chantal made the first U.S. landfall of the season and brought high winds and deadly flooding to the Carolinas during the Independence Day holiday weekend.

“No two storms are alike,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “Every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place and know the actions you should take before, during and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring.”

Atlantic basin tropical storm activity is expected to be elevated due to a combination of factors, including warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and an active west African monsoon.

El Niño Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions are expected to continue, meaning there is neither an El Niño nor La Niña to influence this season’s storm activity.

“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service.

NOAA’s hurricane season outlook

NOAA’s hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast.

Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline. 

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center provides tropical weather outlooks out to seven days in advance, provides track and intensity forecasts for individual storms and issues watches and warnings for specific tropical storms, hurricanes and the associated storm surge.

NOAA release