HOLT, Fla., Aug. 15, 2025—Tropical Storm Erin has become the first hurricane of the 2025 season.

Located east of the Windward Islands, the system is moving west-northwest near 18 mph. By early next week, Erin is forecast to gradually turn northwestward and northward keeping it out to sea.

The threat of direct impacts along the U.S. east coast are gradually decreasing, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph and noted the formation of an eyewall.

Erin is in favorable environmental conditions and steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next two-to-three days with the storm expected to become the season’s first major hurricane during the weekend. Maximum strength is forecast for a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds.

Meanwhile, the low pressure area in the western Gulf, identified as Invest 98, has a low chance of development.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that closed circulation is not present. Close proximity to the coast gives the system only a few hours left over water to develop, according to the NHC.

The NHC gives it a low 20 percent chance, but time is running out for Invest 98.

NHC forecasts