HOLT, Fla., Oct. 26, 2025—Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean is rapidly intensifying and is forecast to reach category 5 strength by tonight before moving over Jamaica sometime Monday.

The storm is now forecast to have prolonged sustained winds up to 160 mph. Category 5 winds begin at 157 mph.

The National Hurricane Center is calling this a “very serious situation” in terms of catastrophic rainfall and wind and storm surge hazards for Jamaica, making it the most historic storm to ever hit the island nation.

Melissa was a category 3 storm by late last night. It’s reached category 4 with 140 mph winds this morning. Rapid intensification is expected to continue for the next 24 hours and it’s possible Melissa could intensify even faster than what is forecast, according to the NHC.

Melissa should weaken as it interacts with Jamaica and Cuba, although it is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it nears Cuba. A faster weakening should occur after passing Cuba when the storm encounters strong shear over the southwestern Atlantic, according to the NHC.

The hurricane center outlined risks for Jamaica and other parts of the Greater Antilles in its 5 a.m. EDT advisory discussion.

For Jamaica: Damaging winds and heavy rainfall today and tomorrow will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before the strongest winds arrive tomorrow night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast tomorrow and Tuesday morning.

For Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities.

For the Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the country.

For eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing.

National Hurricane Center forecast