HOLT, Fla., May 31, 2023—Another Atlantic hurricane season begins tomorrow.

Unlike the preceding years, this one is forecast to be less active than the previous above-normal seasons.

That said, the National Hurricane Center today has designated a low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico as the first “investigative area” of the season.

Invest 91 appears marginally favorable for slow development for now, according to the NHC, but will face unfavorable conditions for additional development during the weekend.

However, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly a mission tomorrow afternoon.

Regardless of development, the Florida peninsula could receive some gusty winds and heavy rainfall with potential for flooding. A flood watch has already been issued for south Florida.

Although predictions are calling for a near-normal season, the National Hurricane Center determined a subtropical storm has already formed in 2023.

On May 11, the NHC said the first storm of the year formed in the Atlantic Basin in mid-January. The subtropical storm formed from an area of low pressure off the northeastern coast of the United States.

As a result, the next tropical depression that forms will be designated as TD2; however, the next named storm will be called Arlene, the first name on this season’s list.

Predictions

The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather and Climatic Research team and AccuWeather all predicted a near-normal season.

Predictions among the three range from 11-to-17 named storms, four-to-nine hurricanes and one-to-four major hurricanes.

A normal season consists of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes with winds at 157 mph or higher.

Changes this year

The NHC has changed its routine outlooks from a five-day to a seven-day look forward, which began May 15. These outlooks are updated at 2 and 8 a.m. and 2 and 8 p.m. EDT.

Additionally, the World Meteorological Organization, the organization responsible for maintaining the hurricane name list, announced in March it has retired the names Fiona and Ian from the list due to the devastating impact of the storms.

These names are replaced with Farrah and Idris. The name lists are repeated every six years.

Incidentally, the letter “I” is the most retired hurricane name letter.

2022 season

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, quieter than previous seasons, had an average number of storms, a slightly above-average number of hurricanes and below-average number of major hurricanes.

The season produced 14 named storms, eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes—Fiona and Ian.

The first named storm, Tropical Storm Alex, developed five days after the June 1 start of the season. This was the first season since 2014 that did not have a pre-season named storm.

The Atlantic hurricane seasons runs from 1 June to 30 November.