HOLT, Fla., Oct. 5, 2018–The broad area of low pressure centered near the coast of Honduras in the Caribbean Sea is starting to become better organized according to the National Hurricane Center.
Models have continued to come into better agreement that this disturbance could develop into a more organized system as conditions become more favorable.
A tropical depression will likely form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly toward the northwest and north.
The NHC now gives this system a high chance–80 percent–of further development during the five-day forecast period.
Confidence on a potential track and intensity is low at the moment, according to the National Weather Service in Mobile, and until the system becomes better organized and confidence improves, potential impacts here are unknown.