HOLT, Fla., April 7, 2017—Colorado State University is predicting four hurricanes and 11 named storms for the Atlantic 2017 hurricane season.
Two of the four hurricanes are predicted to be major storms, in the 3-4-5 category.
This is slightly below average hurricane activity, according to the report issued by CSU’s Tropical Meteorology Project.
The report predicts a “below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
According to the report, the tropical Atlantic has cooled during the past month and the north Atlantic is colder than normal.
Additionally, El Nino could produce wind shear conditions during the next several months, inhibiting development of large tropical storms.
According to CSU’s data, the probability of a hurricane making landfall in Okaloosa county this hurricane season is less than 2 percent with a nearly 4 percent probability of a named storm swinging through the area.
Hurricane season runs from June through November; however, storms have occurred outside those months. Tropical Bonnie made landfall near Charleston, S.C., in May 2016. Hurricane Alex developed in January last year and was the first Atlantic hurricane to form in January since 1955.
The CSU report comes out ahead of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s 2017 hurricane predictions. This is CSU’s 34th year to predict Atlantic hurricane forecasts and it has an 80 percent accuracy rate.