HOLT, Fla., June 4, 2019–The first of this year’s hurricane predictions are in.
Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science, considered the top hurricane forecasters, released its 2019 Atlantic hurricane predictions.
This year meteorologists at CSU anticipate a “slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” according to the report released today.
Meteorologists at CSU predict 13 named storms. Of those, five are expected to become hurricanes with two of those becoming major storms, category 3, 4 or 5.
By comparison, AccuWeather’s 2019 hurricane predictions, released yesterday, calls for a slightly above normal season with 12-to-14 named storms.
Of those, five-to-seven are predicted to become hurricanes and two-to-four to become major hurricanes.
Last year, CSU’s April prediction was for seven hurricanes with three major storms. The 2018 season had eight hurricanes and two major storms.
The Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville is looking at a 28 percent chance of a major storm making landfall.
According to CSU’s landfall hurricane probability, Florida has a 47 percent chance of a hurricane making landfall in the state. There’s a 19 percent chance of a major hurricane impact.
Okaloosa County’s probability of seeing a named storm this season is 4 percent and 1 percent for a major storm hitting here. However, this county has an almost 29 percent chance of experiencing tropical storm force wind gusts this season.
However, as CSU caveated in its report, “coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.”
The official start of hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.