LAKELAND, Fla., May 21, 2026—Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a total of eight to 14 named storms. Of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes—category 3 or higher with winds of 111 mph or higher.

NOAA has a 70 percent confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

Key factors driving NOAA’s forecast

The Atlantic season is expected to be below normal due to competing factors.

El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average.

El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.

“It only takes one storm…”

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns is not a landfall forecast.

“Preparing now for hurricane season—and not waiting for a storm to threaten—is essential for staying ahead of any storm,” said Graham.

NOAA news release