First tropical system of the season likely tomorrow

HOLT, Fla., May 20, 2021—The first tropical system of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will likely form sometime tomorrow.

Located about 800 miles east of Bermuda, what likely will become Subtropical Storm Ana is expected to develop gale-force winds later today while it moves generally northward.

The low is forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters tonight and tomorrow as it nears Bermuda.

It has a 90 percent chance of developing.

The system is expected to move north-northeast into a more hostile environment late Sunday into Monday.

Ana was the first storm of the 2015 hurricane season, also forming in May, kicking off six consecutive years of pre-season storm formations.

Ana’s early 2015 formation was considered relatively rare at the time. Since then, there have been eight early season storms:

  • Ana in May 2015
  • Alex in January and Bonnie in May 2016
  • Arlene in April 2017
  • Alberto in May 2018
  • Andrea in May 2019
  • Arthur and Bertha in May 2020

An active pre-season Atlantic is the reason the National Hurricane Center began issuing tropical storm advisories May 15 this year. The World Meteorological Organization is considering pushing back the start of hurricane season from June 1 to May 15 in the future as well.

Staff and National Hurricane Center forecast

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