Fewer hurricanes predicted for 2018

infrared goes-16 IR harvey 9-25-17

Hurricane Harvey is located off the Texas Gulf Coast Aug. 25, 2017. (NOAA)

HOLT, Fla., Aug. 3, 2018–The chances for a major hurricane to land in Florida just got slimmer according to the latest predictions by Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.

The team at CSU adjusted its hurricane predictions downward for the 2018 Atlantic season.

9 named storms
3 hurricanes
1 major hurricane

The new predictions call for nine named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane for the rest of the season. A major hurricane is a category 3, 4, or 5.

The pre-season prediction in April called for 14 named storms, but was adjusted downward to 11 in the July prediction; seven hurricanes was changed to four and three major hurricanes was changed to one.

The new probability of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast is 19 percent with a 28 percent probability of a big storm hitting anywhere along the U.S. coastline.

Reasons for the downward change is due to the tropical Atlantic Ocean remaining cooler than normal and strong wind shear across the Caribbean Sea, according to CSU.

“The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean is below normal,” according to the report.

Peak-season

Peak hurricane season traditionally runs from mid August through late October. (NOAA)

The CSU meteorology team will begin issuing updates every two weeks during the peak hurricane season. Peak season traditionally runs from mid August through late October.

A key message from the report is regardless what the predictions are, it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for someone.

Stephanie Holcombe

 

 

 

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