New track keeps Dorian off the coast

Dorian8-318amHOLT, Fla., Aug. 31, 2019—The National Hurricane Center moved Hurricane Dorian’s forecast track eastward at its 5 a.m. update keeping the center of the storm in the Atlantic Ocean.

The forecast for Dorian now shows the track making the anticipated northward turn prior to landfall.

However, the National Hurricane Center stresses the models are still inconsistent after the 48-hour period forecast period to definitely say the storm will remain in the Atlantic Ocean.

That the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty, according to the NHC.

Additionally, significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph and the storm is expected to maintain that strength for the next 12-to-48 hours.

Dorian is still a category 4 hurricane, but late in the forecast period, increased wind shear and proximity to land is expected to cause some weakening.

Dorian is now moving toward the west near 12 mph. A slower westward motion should continue into early next week.

On this track, the core of Dorian should be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

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