HOLT, Fla., Sept. 11, 2020—The low-pressure area south of the Bahamas has organized into Tropical Depression 19.

It will likely become Tropical Storm Sally, but the National Hurricane Center is unsure if it will strengthen before reaching Florida late tonight.

Once it crosses the southern peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, it will have low wind shear and warm waters to help feed the system.

Because of this, the NHC forecast is for TD 19 to possibly strengthen to near hurricane intensity by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

While tracking is toward the west-northwest with a turn northwest, uncertain weather conditions after 48 hours could push the system across the northern Gulf coast faster and to the northeast of the current cone of uncertainty.

Landfall is forecast late Monday, early Tuesday.

Bottom line: Stay tuned for changes in the following days.

Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight along the southeast Florida coast. 

Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind and heavy rainfall will be possible along the Gulf coast from the Florida panhandle to southeastern Louisiana this weekend into early next week.

National Hurricane Center forecast