HOLT, Fla., June 17, 2021—The broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to move northward today.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form over the west-central Gulf tonight or early tomorrow.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled this afternoon, if necessary.
The National Weather Service in Mobile is forecasting gusty winds for Saturday that may warrant a wind advisory.
From the NWS Mobile:
The lopsided system will produce heaviest rains far removed from the center of the disturbance.
The exact location of the highest rainfall totals will depend heavily on the eventual track and timing of the disturbance and rainfall amounts will be tweaked with future forecasts.
Expect bands of moderate-to-heavy rain to slide onshore beginning tomorrow night as the firehose of deep tropical moisture opens up somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast.
Bands of heavy rain will continue through Saturday as the disturbance moves inland well to the west of this area.
A good 3-to-7 inches of rain could fall Friday night through Saturday night with the highest totals across parts of Mississippi and Mobile County in Alabama.
Overall, there is the potential for 5-to-9 inches of rainfall during this event through the entire weekend with isolated higher totals where bands of heavy rain repeatedly train over the same areas.
A few brief tornadoes are possible Saturday as the low moves inland.
The remains of the tropical system will move away from the area early next week, but will leave behind very moist air. That coupled with a front moving into the area and stalling though midweek leads to more rain through Wednesday, some heavy at times.
National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service in Mobile forecasts