Active Atlantic basin as peak of season approaches

HOLT, Fla., Sept. 9, 2021—The National Hurricane Center is keeping track of four areas of interest as the peak of the 2021 hurricane season approaches.

A portion of a tropical wave over northeastern Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche Saturday

Conditions are expected to be favorable to support some gradual development of the system before it moves over mainland Mexico early next week.

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, a strong wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa, also on Saturday, according to the NHC.

Once it moves offshore, conditions become favorable for a tropical depression to form by early next week as it moves west-northwest near the Cabo Verde Islands.

While it doesn’t yet have an Invest number, the NHC has already given it a 50 percent chance of development.

Closer to home, now-Tropical Depression Mindy was a tropical storm for less than 12 hours.

TS Mindy moved onshore early this morning somewhere along the Apalachicola area and quickly weakened into a depression.

The system will be over the Atlantic Ocean sometime today. Further development is not forecast.

Finally, Hurricane Larry is a category 1 storm.

Its path is forecast to track to the east of Bermuda, which is under tropical storm warnings only.

The biggest impact from Larry are large ocean swells along the eastern coast of the United States, causing life-threatening surf and rip currents, according to the NHC.

Larry is expected to reach Newfoundland tomorrow night, early Saturday morning, where it will transition to a post-tropical system.

Tomorrow marks the historical peak of the season. Last year at this time, the NHC was tracking two tropical waves, a depression that became Tropical Storm Beta, two post-tropical storms—Sally and Vicky—and Hurricane Teddy.

According to seasonal forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there have only been four out of the seven-to-ten hurricanes predicted for this season. The good news is there have been three major hurricanes out of the three-to-five NOAA predicted.

Staff and National Hurricane Center forecasts

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