CSU revises 2018 hurricane prediction

hurricanewarning

HOLT, Fla., May 31, 2018–The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has revised its 2018 Atlantic hurricane season predictions downward the day before the season begins.

CSU’s new predictions is forecasting average activity for this hurricane season.

This revision is based on a cooler North Atlantic Ocean during the past two months as well as a cooler-than-normal eastern and central tropic Atlantic.

The caveat as always is “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season” for those in its path.

The project’s April prediction was for a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year with 14 named storms, seven to become hurricanes and three to reach major hurricane strength.

Adjusting, the CSU team now predicts 13 named storms, six to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength (category 3 or higher).

Probability for a major hurricane to hit this area is 29 percent, according to the report, compared to the average for the last century for this area which is 30 percent.

By comparison, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s May 2018 prediction was more of a spread: 10-to-16 named storms, five-to-nine hurricanes and one-to-four major hurricanes.

The season has already had one named storm–Subtropical Storm Alberto–which formed before the official start of the 2018 hurricane season.

The CSU forecast is based on an extended-range early June statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 29 years of past data from 1982 to 2010.

This is the 35th year the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has released forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity.

Stephanie Holcombe

 

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