HOLT, Fla., Sept. 2, 2018–A third tropical system has emerged from the west coast of Africa.
This tropical wave is forecast to move westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
Low wind shear is expected to allow for some slow development of this disturbance by the middle of the week.
Formation chance through the next five days is low at 20 percent.
In the Caribbean Sea, thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave located between north-central Cuba and the central Bahamas is becoming better organized as wind shear begins to taper off, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Formation chance through the next five days has increased to 90 percent.
A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys.
The will be the seventh named storm of the season as Sept. 10, historically the peak of the hurricane season, approaches. The next name in the lineup is Gordon.
This time of year, hurricanes typically begin as tropical waves from Africa and build strength as they move west across the Atlantic.
This closer system is forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday afternoon and move toward the north-central Gulf Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday.
A tropical storm watch could be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast tonight.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Florence has weakened due to wind shear and the addition of dry air.
Now that the system has weakened, a more westward motion is expected throughout the next five days which will allow it to track closer to the eastern coast of the United States.
By day five, Florence is forecast to re-strengthen as it moves over warmer waters and into a weaker wind shear environment.
National Hurricane Center forecasts