Tropics update: two lows and a depression

10-15-8amHOLT, Fla., Oct. 15, 2019—Two low-pressure systems and a tropical depression dot the National Hurricane Center’s tropics map this morning.

Of the three systems, the one with the most potential to affect the Gulf coast is the one currently over the Yucatan peninsula.

This low is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche, then turn northward, according to the NHC.

Environmental conditions could become a little more favorable for development toward the end of the week as the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC has increased its chances for further development to 30 percent.

Tropical Depression 15 remains poorly organized this morning and has not strengthened, according to the NHC.

It’s expected to move generally northwestward during the next couple of days with a turn to the west-northwest.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain generally favorable for about the next 12-to-24 hours giving the depression a chance to become a tropical storm; however, the NHC is not forecasting significant intensification.

By the time Wednesday rolls around, wind shear, dry air and cooler surface temperatures will kill off any strengthening opportunity and the depression will dissipate.

Finally, the tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands isn’t expected to develop because of wind shear.

National Hurricane Center forecasts

 

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